Hey, I ran the tourney one million times so you don’t have to.
Notes!
A total of 55 different teams won at least once. This included Bryant and Robert Morris. Dare to dream.
These are entirely based on the current ratings. There is no accounting for injuries or that the SEC is probably slightly overrated or that Louisville is playing in Lexington.
I think I say it every year, but if a team’s goal is to win the tournament, this exercise always proves that seeding doesn’t matter much. Gonzaga for instance, is the ninth-best team in my ratings, got an 8-seed, and still has the 12th-best chance to win it all. On the flip side, Houston actually gets slightly penalized for having to go through Gonzaga. They actually would have preferred to be a two-seed knowing they were in the Gonzaga pod. Obsessing over who will get what seed is a waste of time (unless it’s about who will get sent to Dayton, obviously).
The following table is unreadable on a mobile device. Sorry!
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1E Duke 99.5 84.6 69.4 52.5 35.6 22.9
1W Florida 99.0 85.0 67.3 50.1 32.7 18.8
1S Auburn 99.7 80.4 63.3 45.8 27.2 14.9
1MW Houston 98.6 71.5 54.4 37.3 20.9 12.2
2MW Tennessee 93.4 69.6 48.2 25.1 11.8 5.7
2E Alabama 97.0 69.9 45.6 18.7 9.3 4.2
2S Michigan St. 95.8 65.7 38.6 16.8 7.0 2.7
3W Texas Tech 90.9 58.2 34.1 13.8 6.5 2.6
3S Iowa St. 85.8 56.2 30.8 13.0 5.2 1.9
4W Maryland 89.7 66.1 21.5 11.1 4.7 1.7
2W St. John's 95.1 59.6 31.0 11.2 4.8 1.7
3E Wisconsin 94.1 57.0 26.1 8.7 3.6 1.3
4E Arizona 89.8 61.5 17.4 8.2 3.3 1.2
8MW Gonzaga 69.0 22.4 13.8 7.1 2.7 1.1
3MW Kentucky 86.4 49.4 20.8 7.6 2.4 0.8
4S Texas A&M 78.4 45.3 14.3 6.7 2.3 0.7
4MW Purdue 80.4 45.0 14.2 6.2 2.0 0.6
6W Missouri 71.6 32.6 16.2 5.2 2.0 0.6
5MW Clemson 72.2 40.5 13.0 5.7 1.8 0.6
6MW Illinois 66.2 35.2 14.2 5.0 1.5 0.5
7W Kansas 63.8 28.4 12.6 3.8 1.3 0.4
7E Saint Mary's 65.8 23.1 11.1 3.2 1.2 0.4
6S Mississippi 59.6 26.0 11.2 3.6 1.1 0.3
5S Michigan 58.5 30.5 8.3 3.5 1.1 0.3
7MW UCLA 65.1 21.7 10.3 3.4 0.9 0.3
8S Louisville 59.7 13.1 6.8 3.0 0.9 0.3
7S Marquette 61.1 23.1 10.2 3.1 0.9 0.2
6E BYU 54.3 24.0 8.9 2.4 0.8 0.2
5E Oregon 65.4 26.6 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
9E Baylor 52.5 8.7 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
11E VCU 45.7 18.4 6.1 1.4 0.4 0.1
8W Connecticut 52.3 8.5 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.09
12S UC San Diego 41.5 18.3 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.07
8E Mississippi St. 47.5 6.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.07
9MW Georgia 31.0 6.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.05
11S North Carolina 25.4 9.5 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.05
12W Colorado St. 54.8 18.3 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.05
9S Creighton 40.3 6.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.04
9W Oklahoma 47.7 6.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.04
10W Arkansas 36.2 11.4 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.03
10S New Mexico 38.9 10.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.03
11MW Texas 16.9 6.4 1.8 0.4 0.07 0.01
11MW Xavier 16.9 6.4 1.8 0.4 0.08 0.01
11W Drake 28.4 7.7 2.2 0.4 0.08 0.01
5W Memphis 45.2 12.8 1.7 0.4 0.09 0.01
10MW Utah St. 34.9 7.5 2.4 0.5 0.08 0.01
10E Vanderbilt 34.2 6.6 2.0 0.3 0.07 0.01
11S San Diego St. 15.1 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.06 0.01
12MW McNeese 27.8 9.5 1.4 0.3 0.05 0.008
12E Liberty 34.6 9.4 1.1 0.2 0.04 0.007
13S Yale 21.6 5.9 0.6 0.1 0.02 0.003
13MW High Point 19.6 4.9 0.5 0.07 0.007 <.001
14S Lipscomb 14.2 3.6 0.6 0.08 0.007 <.001
14MW Troy 13.6 2.5 0.3 0.03 0.003 <.001
14W UNC Wilmington 9.1 1.6 0.2 0.01 0.002 <.001
13E Akron 10.2 2.4 0.1 0.01 <.001 <.001
15E Robert Morris 3.0 0.4 0.04 0.002 <.001 <.001
13W Grand Canyon 10.3 2.8 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.001
15MW Wofford 6.6 1.3 0.2 0.02 <.001 <.001
15S Bryant 4.2 0.4 0.03 0.001 <.001 <.001
14E Montana 5.9 0.6 0.03 0.002 <.001 <.001
15W Nebraska Omaha 4.9 0.5 0.04 0.001 <.001 <.001
16W Norfolk St. 1.0 0.1 0.009 <.001 <.001 <.001
16MW SIUE 1.4 0.06 0.004 <.001 <.001 <.001
16E American 0.3 0.02 <.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
16E Mount St. Mary's 0.2 0.009 <.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
16S Alabama St. 0.2 0.006 <.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
16S Saint Francis 0.07 0.002 <.001 <.001 <.001 <.001