Conference tourney odds

I guess we’re doing this

We’ll put conference tournament probabilities here. There won’t be commentary for all of them, and what commentary there is will be poorly-researched with a few typos.

16. MAC

We’re 16-deep into the tourney odds, and this is just the second where the top seed is not the favorite. And oh yeah, the top seed is also undefeated. It’s safe to say that this is the first time in history that an undefeated team has not been a favorite in its conference tourney. If you believe these calculations, there’s a 75% chance of a bid thief out of the MAC. I’m guessing that’s a record as well. The MAC plays at a neutral site in Cleveland with a traditional bracket beginning on Thursday.

15. Big Sky

The Big Sky starts on Saturday with a mostly traditional bracket (7 plays 8 and 9 plays 10 in the first round). This is the strongest the Big Sky has been in its history, ranking 14th in the conference hierarchy this season. Portland State is within reach of the best teams from the Ken Bone and yet not the favorite or second-favorite here because they have to potentially go through UNC in the semifinals. The Bears started Big Sky play 1-7 but then went 9-1 to close it out.

14. America East

We have the usual campus site/re-seeded bracket from America East, which begins on Saturday.

13. CAA

The CAA opens play on Saturday from Washington, D.C. with a traditional bracket.

12. SoCon

The SoCon tournament starts Friday in Asheville with a traditional bracket.

11. WCC

This is the last run for the WCC as we know it which is a good thing. This will be the 16th consecutive season that Gonzaga finishes as the highest-rated team in the league. They do not belong in this conference for men’s basketball. This starts Thursday with a double-stepladder format

10. MAAC

It’s the last year for the MAAC as the league will undergo a mysterious name change soon. This was a good call. The conference’s press release explains why:

In addition, the acronym “MAAC” is often misunderstood or misinterpreted. Common assumptions include “Mid-Atlantic Conference” and “Metro Athletic Conference.” Beyond the Northeast, the Conference’s identity is less clearly recognized, leading to references such as “M-A-A-C,” “the MAAC with two A’s,” “the MAAC without football,” “the other MAAC,” or even exaggerated pronunciations.

I personally preferred the exaggerated pronunciation - the “Mah - Ack”. No more. It’s a Thursday start with a traditional bracket in Atlantic City.

9. Arch Madness

The MVC starts on Thursday with the traditional bracket. Belmont is finally back to Rick Byrd-level greatness, but look at Northern Iowa who’s the second-best team in the league but got a six-seed due to some poor luck. They had a +8.1 efficiency margin in league games (compared to Belmont’s +10.4 and second-seeded Bradley’s +2.4), but just an 11-9 record. Look for a big-time quarterfinal between UNI and Illinois State.

8. NEC

After spending a season as America’s worst conference, the NEC is on the way up, beating out America East and the MEAC this season. But it did rank dead-last in tempo for the second-consecutive season. This league hasn’t received better than a 16-seed since 2011 and better than a 15-seed since 2002. LIU is the significant favorite in this campus-site based event that begins Wednesday.

7. Summit League

The Summit League returns to Sioux Falls with a traditional bracket that starts on Wednesday. St. Thomas and its Layup Line™ offense is the highest-rated team in the league, but they’re on the tougher side of the bracket and therefore not the favorite. That honor goes to North Dakota State, where longtime head coach Dave Richman is looking to make his third trip to the NCAA tournament.

6. ASUN

The ASUN is holding its tourney in Jacksonville with a traditional bracket. It’s wide open among the top four seeds. In conference games, ASUN teams had an offensive rating of 114.8, tops in the land. There will be lots of 3’s and lots of points in these games.

5. Big South

The Big South Tourney takes place in Johnson City, Tennessee. It begins Wednesday and features a traditional bracket. The hashtag is #MountainSouthMadness. Terrible hashtag.

4. OVC

The Kenny Payne coaching tree is flourishing! Tennessee State’s Nolan Smith got the OVC’s coach of the year and the Tigers are the highest-rated team in the league at #207. The OVC tourney begins on Wednesday in Evansville and features the ever-popular double-stepladder approach.

3. Patriot League

The Patriot League starts Tuesday with its customary format involving campus sites for every game. While we have lamented the disaster of a season that Air Force has had, it’s still possible for service academies to flourish. Navy is having its best season ever (excluding seasons with a HOFer on the roster) and won the PL by 6 full games. They lead the country in minutes continuity by a mile. They have the second-longest winning streak in the nation. Life has been good for first-year head coach Jon Perry.

2. Sun Belt

The Sun Belt starts on Tuesday in Pensacola. I can’t tell who came up with the #StairwayToSeven hashtag but give them a raise. The controversial double stepladder format of this event gained extra scrutiny when the final standings featured the first six-way tie in a conference in the past 30 seasons. Well, I still like the double stepladder. It creates extra incentive for earning a better seed. Your issue should be with archaic tie-breaking procedures.

1. Horizon League

The Horizon League starts tonight and is blazing new territory with a bracket that is a mix of reseeding, campus sites, and includes history’s first Interstitial Game on Sunday at 3 PM. (The probabilities may or may not be correct because of this.) The IG is its own separate round pitting the two lowest-seeded winners of five first-round games. There’s a decent chance that Doug Gottlieb’s team is involved and I look forward to him performatively demanding answers from the Horizon League commissioner as to why his team is playing in it. Also, there’s a remote chance that Robert Morris’s DeSean Goode sets the all-time 3-point percentage record (min. 50 attempts).