I’ve updated the program ratings for another season with a new and improved formula. Past versions were a time-decay weighted average of adjusted net rating since the 1997 season with some influence from current conference strength and a dash of recruiting history. The new formula is similar, but the recruiting history now includes both transfers and freshmen (thanks, 247sports.com) and I’ve added a component of historic tournament performance.
There is only one way you should judge these ratings and that is based on which coaching job would the average human take if presented with two options. If you were the head coach at West Virginia (31st) and were offered the job Indiana (17th), would you take it? Most humans would. If you were the head coach at Maryland (19th) would you take the job at Villanova (11th)? Maybe not by secretly negotiating your exit while your old team is fighting for tournament glory. But nevertheless!
This season there were 23 people who were a D-I head coach last season and will be coaching a different team this season. Just three of them took jobs at lower-ranked programs. Two of them were from the depths of the HBCU world. Donte Jackson went from Grambling State (355th) to Alabama A&M (360th), who’s objectively had worse results in the SWAC than Grambling over the past decade.
Landon Bussie is going from Alcorn State (353rd) to Chicago State (358th), who’s now in the NEC, which has ranked as the worst league in the country the past two seasons. Though one can understand that coaching basketball is going to be more appealing in Chicago than Lorman, Mississippi.
The third case is Fran McCaffrey, who’s going from Iowa (50th) to Penn (160th). And obviously it wasn’t McCaffrey’s choice to leave Iowa. Here are all of the changes:
The program rankings are also a way to evaluate the new coaches at programs who didn’t hire someone from the head coaching spot on another team. The highest ranked program to go this route is 41st-ranked Florida State, who hired alum Luke Loucks from the Sacramento Kings, in a deal agreed to before the season ended. The Seminoles’ neighbors in the program rankings give you an idea of the kind of coach they could have gone after if they wanted someone from the college ranks.
#38 Iowa State (most recent hire: T.J. Otzelberger from #75 UNLV)
#39 Xavier (Richard Pitino from #87 New Mexico)
#40 Texas Tech (Grant McCasland from #123 North Texas)
#42 Washington (Danny Sprinkle from #84 Utah State)
#43 Creighton (Greg McDermott, fired from #38 Iowa State)
#44 Georgetown (Ed Cooley from #58 Providence)
So you can reasonably take swings at coaches in good standing from about #60 on down. The list of rising coaches from this neighborhood was somewhat slim this offseason. Ryan Odom and Richard Pitino both had their sights on better destinations, and guys like Niko Medved and Ben McCollum weren’t geographically-appropriate.
Will Wade would have been a great choice, but if Loucks wasn’t already the obvious pick, FSU brass might not have had the fortitude to try to outbid others and delay their hire. If I ran a search firm, I’d have given a holler to Tony Skinn, but with just two years of experience at George Mason, you could have understood the reluctance to consider him yet.
You could also grab a fired coach from a better institution but this is the list of those: Kyle Neptune, Rodney Terry, and Mike Woodson. That route wasn’t an option.
So you can see why Loucks, already an appealing candidate, ended up being the only candidate. In addition, it’s more important than ever for a new coach to start the job as early as possible, and Loucks could begin working the transfer portal before the college season ended.
I’m not connected enough to know who the candidates will be for any job that comes open. But the program ratings can make some sense of the choices. Let’s use Murray State as another example. Who could they have been in the market for after parting ways with Steve Prohm? Let’s look at who their neighbors have hired:
#106 Tulsa (HC Eric Konkol from #121 Louisiana Tech)
#107 Western Kentucky (Hank Plona, internal promotion. Previously HC Steve Lutz from #266 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
#108 St. Bonaventure (HC Mark Schmidt from #255 Robert Morris)
#110 Belmont (HC Casey Alexander from #223 Lipscomb)
#111 George Mason (Asst. Tony Skinn from #19 Maryland)
#112 Wyoming (HC Sundance Wicks from #211 Green Bay)
You can plumb the depths of D-I, or you can go for a promising assistant at a high-level program. And The Racers chose the latter in hiring Ryan Miller away from McDermott’s staff at #43 Creighton.
Finally, let’s go further down the list. Fordham is an interesting case. Since joining the Atlantic 10 in 1995, the Rams have complied a miserable 131-366 conference record. Still, being in the 8th-ish best conference in the country allows the school to punch a bit above its weight when making hires, and they check in at #194 in the program rankings. Here’s what the Rams’ neighborhood looks like:
#191 Delaware (Asst. Martin Inglesby from #55 Notre Dame)
#192 Northeastern (Asst. Bill Coen from #90 Boston College)
#193 James Madison (HC Preston Spradlin from #254 Morehead State)
#195 San Jose State (HC Tim Miles, two seasons removed from #78 Nebraska)
#196 Seattle (Asst. Chris Victor, internal promotion, previously HC Jim Hayford from #205 Eastern Washington)
#197 Ball State (Asst. Mike Lewis from #9 UCLA)
Fordham did reasonably well by these standards, hiring Mike Magpayo, HC at #236 UC Riverside, who becomes the eighth coach in the program’s A-10 era to try and make Fordham respectable.
If you want to become a coaching insider, the easiest way is to sign up for Trilly’s Discord. But if you want to understand who might be reasonable candidates for an open job, the program rankings are a good start.