Let's talk about Miami
America's favorite Media Darlings have been the rare combo of mediocre and lucky
I don’t tweet often anymore because the platform is a mess, but when I do, I make sure it’s a banger. Like this one from November 28, after Kentucky beat Miami, which got 1.02K likes and 473.6K views if we believe Elon’s analytics:
It’s good to know I can beckon a rush of attention when I’m feeling low. We got engagement from famous former basketball player Luke Hancock and EP of the Dan Lebatard Show, Mike Ryan, among others. Even the former lead assistant for Miami, Chris Caputo, took time out of resurrecting the GW program to offer a reply. CBS’s Gary Parrish accused me of making this disgusting hand gesture:
The point is, I’ve still got it.
Also, the tweet is a true statement. Theoretically, each game provides a data point equally useful to both teams. If you get a surprising outcome like Kentucky beating Miami by 20, you’d be best adjusting your opinion of both teams equally.
But the opinions regarding Media Darlings are more resilient than other teams. When Kentucky beat Miami, the focus was on how Kentucky could actually be one of the best teams in the country, not what was wrong with Miami’s defense, or questioning whether the Hurricanes could repeat last year’s success without Jordan Miller and Isaiah Wong.
When Kentucky followed up that game with a loss to current #119 UNC Wilmington, nobody bothered to reevaluate the previous game. When Miami lost by nearly 30 to Colorado last week, the Hurricanes improbably held onto their spot in the AP top 25.
But Miami has serious problems. They have played poorly and also been lucky. Let’s discuss.
Even with the increasing importance of the 3-point shot in the modern game, defense still works inside-out in hoops. If you can’t protect the rim, there’s not as much incentive to shoot 3’s. And let me tell you, Miami cannot protect the rim. In the losses to Kentucky and Colorado, opponents shot 68% and 70% on 2’s, respectively. And that wasn’t even the worst two-point percentage Miami has allowed this season. Kansas State shot 74% on 2’s, the fourth-worst defensive effort in that category by Miami since the 1999 season.
What allowed Miami to beat the Wildcats in that game was pretty amazing offense helped by a 12-for-24 performance on 3’s and the fact that Kansas State was a woeful 4-for-28 on 3’s themselves. This has been the pattern for Miami this season. They have enjoyed a massive advantage behind the 3-point line, ranking 2nd in offensive 3P% while also ranking 10th in defensive 3P%.
And while most of my twitter followers would see that as entirely skill and tell me that another Final Four run is imminent once Miami fixes its interior defense issues, I suspect most of the audience here understands where this is going.
Let’s start with the good news. Miami has some good shooters. They’ve shot 42.3% to date and while they don’t figure to keep that up, they’ll still be an above-average shooting team the rest of the season. But how good? To take a stab at this, I made a simple regression model using data from the past 25 seasons to predict a teams three-point shooting after its ninth game of the season based on data from its first nine games.
And of course, a team’s 3-point percentage is an important predictor of future 3-point percentage, but other things like free throw percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point attempt rate are also important indicators of future performance. Miami’s been good at all of those things, but even so, regression is on the way. The model says they're expected to make 36.4% of their 3’s the rest of the way as the schedule gets more difficult.
The defensive side is always more interesting because there is so much randomness to defensive 3-point percentage. I’ve written a bunch over the years about how 3-point defense1 is subject to an incredible amount of randomness. In fact, at this point in the season, defensive 2-point percentage is a better predictor of future 3-point percentage than defensive 3-point percentage itself.
That’s where we have some bad news for the Hurricanes and the journalists who are married to them. Opponents have made a woeful 26.5% of their 3-point attempts and that’s bound to improve. The fact that their 2-point defense has been so bad - currently ranking a lousy 275th - means it’s likely to not just regress toward the mean but regress through the mean.
The prediction from the model is for Miami’s opponents to shoot 34.8% the rest of the way, which is actually slightly above the national average and 8.3% worse that what their opponents have done so far. If opponents average 25 3’s a game, that means six additional points per game. Which will be a problem, especially for a defense that needs to improve for Miami to put the spark back into the relationship with its media friends.
So to right the ship, the Hurricanes need to either improve significantly in other areas or hope that their defensive 3-point magic continues. And it would be one thing if Miami had a history of defying the 3-point gods, but last season’s team finished 141st in 3-point defense. The year before that it ranked 236th and the year before that it ranked 322nd. In Jim Larranaga’s previous 12 seasons in Coral Gables, the best Miami’s 3-point defense has ranked is 48th.
One might be curious as to which teams have benefitted most from 3-point luck this season. Miami’s luck on offense has been 6.0% and its luck on defense has been 8.3% for a total 3-point luck of +14.3%. That ranks second in the country. Here’s the top five:
Baylor +16.4%
Miami +14.3%
Canisius +13.6%
Purdue +11.5%
BYU +10.9%
Well, hello Baylor. The Bears have made 46.1% of their 3’s against D-I opponents so far, leading the country. It is unlikely they will make anywhere close to that for the remainder of the season. Just don’t be surprised if Baylor doesn’t look as good going forward as they have so far.
Due to lack of interest, I’ll leave Canisius as an exercise for the reader. For Purdue and BYU, the game has come a bit too easy from the 3-point line so far. In Purdue’s case, it at least comes against one of the toughest schedules in the nation. In BYU’s case, they lead the country in “3-point defense” with opponents making just 23.6% of their attempts. Given that BYU’s 2-point defense ranks just 119th, the 3-point defense looks like it’s due for a significant correction when Big 12 play starts.
The thing is, Purdue, Baylor, and BYU have played like teams that will get high seeds in the tournament. Some correction in 3-point luck won’t alter their postseason plans that much.2
But Miami hasn’t played like a tournament team at all, much less a high seed, even while enjoying a bunch of 3-point luck. And it’s highly unlikely that will sustain itself as the schedule gets more difficult. The good news is that Florida is a no-fault divorce state. If the media ever wants to break up with the ‘Canes, they won’t need to go through a protracted legal battle to do so.
Though I have mild concerns for BYU.